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Seven charts that will define Canada’s G7 Summit
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It’s a high-stakes summit among the many excessive summits. Leaders from the Group of Seven (G7) nations are set to convene within the Rocky Mountain resort of Kananaskis, Alberta, Canada, from June 15 to 17. This 12 months additionally marks the group’s fiftieth assembly. In 1975, the newly created Group of Six (G6) held its first assembly in France amid oil value shocks and monetary fallout from then US President Richard Nixon’s determination to take away the greenback from the gold commonplace. In current years, the G7 has coalesced round coordinating sanctions on Russia, supporting Ukraine’s reconstruction, and responding to Chinese manufacturing overcapacity. But 2025 comes with new challenges, together with an ongoing commerce conflict between G7 members, which will check the resolve and the raison d’etre of the grouping.
Here’s a glance contained in the numbers that will body the summit.
The G7 was shaped fifty years in the past so the world’s advanced-economy democracies may align on shared financial and geopolitical challenges. But what occurs when the reason for instability is coming from contained in the G7? That’s the query confronting the leaders as they assemble this week in Kananaskis.
US President Donald Trump continues to be attending to know a few of his new colleagues, together with German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer, Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, and the summit’s host, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney. Trump will attempt to coordinate the group in opposition to China’s financial coercion. But the remainder of the leaders could flip again to Trump and say that this type of coordination, which is on the coronary heart of why the G7 works, could be simpler if he weren’t imposing tariffs on his allies. The chart above exhibits the friction factors heading into one of the consequential G7 summits within the group’s historical past.
—Josh Lipsky is the chair of worldwide economics on the Atlantic Council, senior director of the GeoEconomics Center, and a former adviser to the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
Originally created as an financial coordination physique, the G7 started to place overseas coverage and nationwide safety on its agenda within the Nineteen Eighties, because the Soviet Union’s political affect was waning. Soon after, Russia attended its first G7 Summit as a visitor in 1991, formally joined in 1998, creating the Group of Eight (G8), after which was suspended in 2014 as a result of its annexation of Crimea.
In the years since, new geopolitical rivals have entered the fray: Since the COVID-19 pandemic, G7 summits and declarations have tried to handle China’s position within the world economic system. Last 12 months’s leaders’ communiqué was particularly harsh on China—which was talked about twenty-nine occasions—on every part from its materials help to Russia’s conflict in opposition to Ukraine to Beijing’s malicious cyber actions. But China was as soon as a visitor on the discussion board, first becoming a member of on this capability in 2003.
Other members of the G7+5, an unofficial grouping of enormous rising markets—India, Mexico, Brazil, and South Africa—have been invited as friends in recent times. If that sounds acquainted, it’s as a result of India, Brazil, and South Africa, together with Russia and China, are the founding members of the BRICS group of rising economies, which some would take into account a illustration of the geopolitical and financial competitors the G7 faces at present.
This 12 months, Australia, Ukraine, South Korea, Brazil, Mexico, and India have been invited to attend as friends. These invites are a sign of broad alignment among the many G7 and its friends. These invites display the significance of the friends’ financial would possibly on the worldwide stage, despite the fact that India has shifted away from the G7 fairly considerably within the final fifty years, as seen within the graph above. In 1992, when Russia first attended the G7 as a visitor, its gross home product (GDP) was lower than 1 % of the world’s GDP, and the mixed economies of the 5 founding BRICS international locations made up lower than 9 % of worldwide GDP. At the time, the G7 represented 63 % of the world’s GDP. Today, the G7’s share is now 44 % of the world’s GDP and the founding BRICS members’ share has greater than doubled to virtually 25 %.
—Ananya Kumar is the deputy director for future of cash on the Atlantic Council’s GeoEconomics Center.
In 2024, G7 international locations attracted over 80 % of worldwide personal synthetic intelligence (AI) investments, led primarily by the United States. In ten years, personal AI investments have grown virtually fifteen-fold. This month, the US Department of Commerce rebranded its AI Safety Institute because the Center for AI Standards and Innovation (CAISI)—shifting away from an emphasis on “safety” and towards selling speedy industrial growth.
Carney has stated that he plans to place AI on the high of his agenda on the upcoming G7 Leaders’ Summit. He has been a long-standing advocate of AI—courting again to his 2018 presentation on AI and the worldwide economic system whereas he was governor of the Bank of England.
But whereas the United States leads in AI innovation and funding, Europe continues to set the tempo on regulation, and China strategically develops its personal AI fashions. All this leaves Canada asking the place it suits in.
That could also be why Carney hopes to steer on this concern. The G7 presidency affords Canada a novel alternative to convene democracies to work collectively on AI. Rather than attempting to outspend the United States or out-regulate Europe, Canada can deal with constructing connections—creating shared requirements, creating trusted public-private information hubs, coordinating strategic investments, and outlining tips for frequent studying and collaboration throughout borders.
—Alisha Chhangani is an assistant director on the Atlantic Council’s GeoEconomics Center.
Ten years after the primary G6 assembly befell in France, one other landmark assembly befell on the Plaza Hotel in New York, in September 1985. At the assembly, then US Treasury Secretary James Baker satisfied his counterparts from West Germany, France, the United Kingdom, and Japan to help a big devaluation of the US greenback—what turned often called the Plaza Accord.
Today, the greenback’s worth relative to its G7 counterparts is on the rise once more, fueled by tight financial coverage and expansionary fiscal spending. Although the present appreciation is milder than the surge seen within the early Nineteen Eighties, the Trump administration could use the G7 Summit to lift considerations in regards to the burden of being the world’s reserve forex, particularly in the case of export competitiveness. In late 2024, the present chair of Trump’s Council of Economic Advisers, Stephen Miran, proposed a “Mar-a-Lago Accord” as an up to date model of the Plaza Accord, although no actual progress on that is obvious. Moreover, this time a key world participant is absent from the dialog—China.
—Bart Piasecki is an assistant director on the Atlantic Council’s GeoEconomics Center.
The finance ministers and central financial institution governors of the G7 already held their assembly final month within the Canadian Rockies, rising with a consensus on tackling “excessive imbalances” and nonmarket insurance policies. While the G7’s finance ministers and central financial institution governors’ communiqué didn’t name out China by identify, it’s clear that’s who they have been referring to. Simultaneously, the US-UK commerce deal referred to as for the United Kingdom to satisfy US necessities on the safety of provide chains, which infuriated Beijing.
Washington desires coordinated financial safety partnerships to assist counter China and encourage extra funding within the United States. But the United States has been calling for allies to divest from China for some time now. In response, G7 counterparts may level to the information above and ask: How far more do we have to give?
Over the previous 5 years, practically each G7 nation, except Canada, has scaled down their investments in China and scaled up their investments within the United States. For instance, Japan has decreased overseas direct funding in China by 60 % over the previous decade, together with shuttering a serious Honda plant in Guangzhou. Meanwhile, the Japanese carmaker pledged to place $300 million right into a plant exterior of Columbus, Ohio. This has been the development because the United States’ G7 companions reassess their financial dependencies on China. But amid ongoing commerce wars, how a lot are they keen to coordinate extra carefully with the United States?
—Jessie Yin is an assistant director with the Atlantic Council’s GeoEconomics Center.
Foreign assist, or official growth help (ODA), from G7 international locations dropped sharply in 2024, and early projections by way of 2025 and 2026 counsel even steeper declines forward for many nations. The United States has exhibited probably the most drastic retreat, following the efficient dismantling of the US Agency for International Development. But European international locations have additionally scaled again growth budgets and are redirecting funds towards protection and home financial points. While ODA briefly surged in response to the COVID-19 pandemic and the conflict in Ukraine, that uptick masked a longer-term downward development in conventional growth funding as a share of G7 international locations’ economies.
Most G7 nations have failed for years to satisfy the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals Target 17.2, which referred to as for allocating 0.7 % of gross nationwide earnings to ODA. As of 2024, none of them has reached this benchmark. This retreat is especially troubling given at present’s fractured geopolitical and financial panorama. In such occasions, investing in world partnerships and life-saving assist by way of ODA is not only an ethical crucial—it’s additionally a strategic one.
—Lize de Kruijf is a program assistant on the Atlantic Council’s Economic Statecraft Initiative.
A significant focus heading into the G7 Summit will be how Carney handles his newest assembly with Trump. The two managed to have a cordial assembly in May, and Carney’s announcement this week that Canada will improve its protection spending may assist to placate Trump, who has lengthy complained about Canada’s lagging protection spending.
But Canada can also be trying past its southern neighbor. Carney has invited the leaders of Australia, Brazil, India, Indonesia, Mexico, South Korea, South Africa, Ukraine, and Saudi Arabia to affix him in Alberta. Under former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, Canada’s relationships with each Saudi Arabia and India reached diplomatic low factors. By inviting these leaders, Carney is demonstrating a willingness to reengage companions. In no space is Carney extra prone to pursue new partnerships than within the protection sector. Canada said its need to affix the ReArm Europe Initiative and has signed a serious deal for an Australian radar system. Expect Carney to hunt new companions as Canada rebuilds its protection capability, probably with a number of the international locations invited to this 12 months’s G7.
—Imran Bayoumi is an affiliate director on the Atlantic Council’s Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security.
Canada’s internet hosting of the G7 Summit in Alberta carries distinctive significance amid escalating tensions with the United States. Trump’s attendance, which will mark his first G7 Summit since 2019, indicators renewed engagement with Canada. This may spark talks on renegotiating the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) forward of the commerce deal’s first joint overview in July 2026. The timing of the G7 Summit coincides with heightened Canadian nationalism and intense public deal with Canada-US relations, notably round tariff disputes affecting sectors corresponding to metal.
The Trump-Carney relationship differs markedly from earlier dynamics between Trudeau and Trump, probably enabling extra productive G7 cooperation when US overseas coverage dominates world conversations. The trilateral presence of Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum, Trump, and Carney creates a chance for preliminary USMCA discussions. However, crucial questions emerge: Will Mexico and Canada align in opposition to the Trump administration? Will Canada prioritize repairing bilateral US relations over Mexico-Canada ties? The summit’s consequence is prone to considerably form hemispheric commerce relationships and regional diplomatic methods.
—Maite Gonzalez Latorre is a program assistant on the Adrienne Arsht Latin America Center and Caribbean Initiative.
Sophia Busch, Ella Wiss Mencke, Ethan Garcia, and Miguel Sanders contributed to the information visualizations on this article. The information visualization titled “US jobs rely on Mexico and Canada more than any other trade partner” initially appeared in an article by Sophia Busch printed on January 16, 2025.
Further studying
Image: Fish and Wildlife officers patrol the realm in Kananaskis Country, the place the leaders of the G7 will meet from June 15 to 17, 2025 in Alberta, Canada, June 9, 2025. REUTERS/Todd Korol.
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