Iran becomes the latest Russian ally to discover the limits of Kremlin support

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For the previous three years, Iran has been a serious backer of Russia’s battle in opposition to Ukraine. But when Israel and later the United States not too long ago started a marketing campaign of airstrikes in opposition to Iranian targets, this support was not reciprocated. Instead, Tehran has discovered that Moscow seems unwilling or unable to supply something extra substantial than diplomatic gestures.

When Russian President Vladimir Putin met with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi on June 23 in the aftermath of US airstrikes on Iran’s nuclear services, he denounced the bombings as an act of “unprovoked aggression” with “no basis or justification.” However, Putin didn’t announce any plans to present navy support. Instead, he spoke in far broader phrases of Russia’s continued dedication to serving to the Iranian folks.

This obvious reluctance to intervene extra forcefully was not an remoted case of Russian restraint. On the opposite, it’s quick changing into a defining characteristic of Moscow’s overseas coverage. Just ask Armenia, which was left with out Kremlin support in recent times amid escalating hostilities with Azerbaijan. As a founding member of the Russian-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) and a longstanding ally of Moscow, Armenia was relying on Russian backing however obtained none.

The same scenario unfolded in Syria late final yr, when the Kremlin-backed Assad regime collapsed in a matter of days. Once once more, Russia refused to change into immediately concerned and selected not to present its ally with desperately wanted navy support. Instead, Moscow’s most important contribution was to supply the ousted Syrian chief asylum. Iran is subsequently not the first nation to discover the limits of Russian friendship.

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The Iranians could be forgiven for feeling significantly let down by Moscow’s underwhelming response to the latest airstrike marketing campaign in opposition to their nation. After all, Russia and Iran signed a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Treaty in January 2025 amid a lot fanfare in Moscow. At the time, Putin praised the partnership deal as a “real breakthrough” in bilateral relations. In distinction, Kremlin officers have not too long ago sidestepped questions over the risk of navy support, whereas underlining that Russia’s not too long ago signed treaty with Iran doesn’t oblige Moscow to defend the Iranians from assault.

Many in Tehran might also really feel undervalued given the significance of the support they’ve supplied to Moscow since the onset of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Crucially, Iran has delivered 1000’s of Shahed assault drones to Russia together with the related technological blueprints, making it attainable for the Kremlin to set up home manufacturing strains of its personal. These drones at the moment are being made at Russian services in quickly growing portions and are enjoying a key function in the Kremlin’s bombing marketing campaign in opposition to Ukrainian cities.

Eurasia Center occasions

Moscow’s latest report of non-intervention on behalf of its allies is a powerful indication that the full-scale invasion of Ukraine has left the Russian navy dangerously overstretched. Putin seems to have launched the invasion in February 2022 anticipating to obtain a fast and complete victory. Instead, his forces have change into slowed down in the largest European battle since World War II.

More than three years since the begin of the invasion, a lot of Russia’s navy power is now thought to be deployed in Ukraine, with little or no spare capability accessible for different duties. Meanwhile, the sorts of air protection programs that Tehran urgently requires are wanted in Russia itself to defend in opposition to Ukraine’s increasing fleet of domestically produced drones and missiles. In different phrases, Putin has his arms full coping with Ukraine and is at present in no place to present Russia’s companions with safety.

The West ought to take observe of Russia’s obvious navy limitations. Throughout the invasion of Ukraine, Western policymakers have constantly urged restraint whereas warning about the risks of attainable Russian escalation. But as Iran, Syria, and Armenia can all testify, Russia at present seems to have little urge for food or capability for brand spanking new navy engagements. This has little doubt come as an disagreeable shock in Tehran, however it ought to be welcome information in Western capitals.

Elena Davlikanova is a fellow at CEPA.

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The views expressed in UkraineAlert are solely these of the authors and don’t essentially mirror the views of the Atlantic Council, its workers, or its supporters.

The Eurasia Center’s mission is to improve transatlantic cooperation in selling stability, democratic values and prosperity in Eurasia, from Eastern Europe and Turkey in the West to the Caucasus, Russia and Central Asia in the East.

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Image: Russian President Vladimir Putin and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian shake arms as they meet in Moscow, Russia. January 17, 2025. (REUTERS/Evgenia Novozhenina/Pool)

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