Bitcoin Price Drops Again — And Nope, It’s Still Not Because Of The Fed

Uncover the newest tendencies within the NFT & Web3 house. This article dives into: “Bitcoin Price Drops Again — And Nope, It’s Still Not Because Of The Fed”.

..aaaand, we’re again at it once more — a misbehaving bitcoin value. Sunday night bitcoin flash-crash dipped a crimson candle the dimensions of Jupiter; and extra eerily, it saved dropping down on Monday morning, touching under $111,000.

Now, round right here within the land of bitcoin value remedy, we are saying that no person is aware of why costs transfer. But generally, we do… although not in addition to we wish. Today, I focus on two issues: the final 24 hours’ value of shenanigans and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s remarks late final week. 

An Unruly Bitcoin Price

Late Sunday (European time) was fairly disgusting:

It’s arduous to say “nobody knows” when a chart seems like that; someone is aware of what occurred to plunge the bitcoin value some 3,000 in a matter of minutes. If it’s not a selected macro occasion, like final week, the one factor consuming by order books like this are a) large orders, and — what quantities to the identical factor — b) mass liquidations. 

Yesterday, there was some indication of each: 

or…

This is an underdeveloped market, and it’s ridiculous how small we’re and the way illiquid the bitcoin market is: nonetheless capable of get wacked round by particular person market actors. (As all the time in Bitcoinland, there’s some schmuck keen to show a verifiably dangerous factor right into a good factor.) 

The 2.5% instantaneous drop in bitcoin value final evening could be a one-off as a consequence of a whale promoting or some liquidations, however the gradual, diagonally down motion in the course of the evening and Monday morning (bitcoin value crashing under $111,000) is rather more worrying. Ignore the massive, noisy whale… wth is occurring? Why are we slowly dying after we must be successful, son!

All the macro arrows of the world are pointing in the appropriate course: Why is the bitcoin value buying and selling down, in this vary, when any sane evaluation places it double or triple from right here…? (And no, we didn’t drop under $111,000 as or as a result of or in relation in any respect to Metaplanet asserting buys).

Price does no matter it needs; shitcos do no matter they please.

Bitcoin value remedy undoubtedly wanted: Bitcoin value simply does no matter it needs, with no regard for sanity or rational evaluation. Not a care on this planet for probably the most bullish of bullish circumstances. Maximum ache, I’ve heard it mentioned. Not even Saylor’s million-dollar-cost averaging made a lot of a dent:

One of those magic tea leaves studying strategies (128-day transferring common), tells us our Bitcoin Magazine Pro crew at present, is at $108,500… so we’ll most likely go there. Saylor et al have already offered their kidneys and chairs, so I ponder what’s left.

More attention-grabbing/terrifying is that it retains falling afterwards, hitting new lows. Our most scoop-like clarification is that every one of those shitcos — of which Mr. Bailey, the proprietor of BTC Inc, runs one, having lately incinerated some $41 million — gobbling up all these cash in the course of the spring couldn’t maintain on to them and at the moment are burping them again out once more; some, in liquidation-infested crimson candles, and others in gradual, grindy, time-weighted value.

A sure Cypherpunk OG appears conscious of the construction:

have they not heard of TWAPs? do they not like cash? such clumsy market exercise. usually individuals with that form of cash could be smarter.

— Adam Back (@adam3us) August 25, 2025

Bitcoin Price and Powell’s Bowel

Sometimes we truly (form of) do know what occurred in markets — like final week, Aug 22, at 10 am Eastern: Released on Fed web site was the assertion/improve to Fed’s financial coverage framework. It was broadly interpreted as future easing of financial coverage within the playing cards. How do we all know this? Because each (arduous) asset bounce on the minute, and the greenback index fell:

• 9:59:49…bitcoin value = $112,393, in accordance with Bitcoin Magazine Pro’s chart.
• 10:00:49, one minute later, it’s 113459… 
• a couple of minutes after that, we hit 115,000, bitcoin value rising 2.3% on the information.

This is the form of shit that strikes markets, and the instantaneous, giant strikes make us fairly assured that THIS is the trigger.

(for reference: 9.59, DXY = 98.7; two minutes later, 98.15; one other minute, 97.8. That’s 1%, in a blink… That’s a giant transfer for the DXY!)

Now we’ve situated the supply — Powell’s speech and/or the discharge of the assertion. Which little bit of his assertion is what shocked markets so?

What occurs on releases like this — or inflation numbers or unemployment by BLS — is that straightforward buying and selling algorithms scrape the web sites for immediate updates and make a split-second evaluation, usually with second-order buying and selling results following. The transfer itself usually get reversed ten, twenty, thirty minutes later when human and clever evaluation have gotten concerned. It was all a nothingburger, in spite of everything. That wasn’t the case this time, because the bitcoin value traded excessive over the weekend (till somebody ruined the enjoyable on Sunday…).

Powell’s statements final week revealed that

• inflation is a bit elevated, however underneath management and coming down
• GDP development had slowed markedly
• unemployment was regular and balanced (however “a curious kind of balance” the place each provide and demand fall collectively) → dangers altogether up.
• …they usually’ll scrap this complete mistaken concept of common inflation goal (over a while interval no person ever specified). 

“In the near term, risks to inflation are tilted to the upside, and risks to employment to the downside — a challenging situation” 

Yet Powell concluded that these dangers “may warrant adjusting our policy stance.”

In the minutes and hours after the speech and the discharge of the assertion, bitcoin value peaked at $117,000, earlier than falling again to $116,000; that’s market members dissecting and assessing, organically, what this new state means.

Here’s the place my “Nobody knows why” take nonetheless holds: Nobody is aware of which half of Powell’s assertion mattered, since new info is all the time mixing and merging with the expectation market members had moving into — and we are able to solely hardly ever inform what these had been. What we’re doing after we’re taking part in these catch-up, advert hoc, after-the-case explanations is taking part in post-rationalization video games. Not that spectacular. 

Altogether pathetic. We want Bitcoiners wealthy and flourishing, not impoverished and distraught.

Bitcoin value remedy out. See you all in Hong Kong for Bitcoin Asia.

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